Collapse-O-Matic

“Unfortunately, given the increasing complexity and fragility of our modern technological society, the chances of a societal collapse are increasing year after year,” said author James Wesley Rawles, whose Survival Blog is considered the guiding light of the prepper movement.

I just ordered a copy of James Wesley Rawles’ book, “How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It: Tactics, Techniques, and Technologies for Uncertain Times” I’m interested in the “Technologies” part, of course.

I picked up on this via a Boing Boing post  on “Suburban Survivalists“-> Rueters on “Subculture of Americans prepares for civilization’s collapse“

I’m trying to figure out whose job it is, in the US government, to prepare for collapse.

FEMA deals with disasters. Here’s their mission:

“FEMA’s mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

DISASTER. It strikes anytime, anywhere. It takes many forms — a hurricane, an earthquake, a tornado, a flood, a fire or a hazardous spill, an act of nature or an act of terrorism. It builds over days or weeks, or hits suddenly, without warning. Every year, millions of Americans face disaster, and its terrifying consequences.”

Collapse is broader in scale than a disaster, so it seems to be beyond the scope of FEMA.  Let’s go up a level.

FEMA is a subset of the Department of Homeland Security.  Here’s DHS’s mission:

“The Department’s mission is to ensure a homeland that is safe, secure, and resilient against terrorism and other hazards. Our efforts are supported by an ever-expanding set of partners. Every day, the more than 230,000 men and women of the Department contribute their skills and experiences to this important mission. Our duties are wide-ranging, but our goal is clear: a safer, more secure America.”

Specifically, DHS does six things: Prevent Terrorism and Enhance Security (not broadly collapse-related, except to the extent that terrorists may seek to bring about collapse), Secure and Manage our Borders (not collapse-related, unless illegal immigrants bring about collapse), Enforce and Administer our Immigration Laws (ditto), Safeguard and Secure Cyberspace (nope), Ensure Resilience to Disasters (maybe, but this falls short in scope the same way the FEMA mission does), Mature and Strengthen DHS (nope).

DHS is a subset of the US government.  Here’s its mission:

“We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”

Preventing collapse is certainly within the purview of the US government.  Establishing Justice, promoting the general Welfare, and securing the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity all have pretty clear anti-collapse goals.

Preventing collapse is a pervasive attribute of much of the government – that’s what the justice system, economic regulation, civil infrastructure, and civic order more generally are designed to do.  But it’s not clear that there’s any one entity tasked with *preparing for* collapse, though.

Let’s make an analogy and see where it goes.  Let’s say that we’re all on a big raft on the ocean (an analogy derived from a chat with a long-time friend and collaborator at the University of Kansas).  And we set up a system so that we can all live happily on the raft, collecting rain water, catching fish, and generally doing okay.  But the raft is held together with rope, and the rope is starting to rot, and being in the middle of the ocean, we don’t have any rope-making supplies handy.  At some point, we should realize that the raft is going to break apart, and we should start having some sort of a plan for living on the smaller rafts that will drift apart from each other once some of the rope wears out.  Should it be the responsibility of the Central Raft Government (CRG) to plan for that future, since it involves the citizens of the CRG, even though that future explicitly involves the ceasing-to-exist of the CRG?  Or is that beyond its purview, and it should simply pour its resources into making sure that the raft stays together, even as that becomes less and less plausible?  And if it’s not the CRG’s job, who’s job is it?  Presumably it’s not just every raft-person for themselves.

Going back to the US example, maybe that’s what state and local governments are for?  At some point will it be time to go to the Orange County Board of Supervisors and say, “Hi there, I know you’ve had your hands full preparing for earthquakes and dealing with budget crises, but have you given any thought to what we’ll do in the eventuality that the US government stops serving effectively as a centralized authority?”

The US government does an excellent job of protecting and supporting the citizenry; this discussion is not to take that organization to task.  Rather, it is just to think through what happens if Tainter’s vision of collapse comes to pass in the US: “a lower degree of stratification and social differentiation; less economic and occupational specialization, of individuals, groups, and territories; less centralized control; that is, less regulation and integration of diverse economic and political groups by elites; less behavioral control and regimentation; less investment in the epiphenomena of complexity, those elements that define the concept of ‘civilization’: monumental architecture, artistic and literary achievements, and the like; less flow of information between individuals, between political and economic groups, and between a center and its periphery; less sharing, trading, and redistribution of resources; less overall coordination and organization of individuals and groups; a smaller territory integrated within a single political unit” (Collapse of Complex Societies, p. 4).

I am neither a political scientist nor a historian.  If any readers of this blog could shed light on whether or not it’s the US government’s job to *prepare for* collapse, rather than just to prevent it, could you point me to where that’s documented?